Tensions are Rising: Prepare Your Portfolio

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Good Morning Investor.

We’re back with my second distribution of this weekly write up where in we discuss financial markets, the macro landscape as well as geopolitics.

Today we’ve got a good one, so strap yourselves in. We’ve got alot to cover, ranging from the UK’s soaring debt, Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, and the upcoming US election potentially being stolen.

And for my premium members we’ll be covering Forecasts & Insights from Israel & Ukraine, Censorship & What Telegram’s Announcement Means, Rate Cuts Don’t Mean Perpetual Gains, and US Elections and Their Impact on Markets.

Geopolitics & News

The United Kingdom is a Bellwether for the West

On Monday of this week, I laid out the spiraling debt crisis plaguing the UK, where the budget deficit—the chasm between revenue and spending—has now widened to 100%, equating to an eye-watering £120 billion.

The most alarming part? This runaway debt accumulation is accelerating, with August alone seeing £13.7 billion borrowed, the highest figure for that month on record, outside of the pandemic. What’s happening in the UK should serve as a stark warning to the rest of the West.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a dystopian, “big brother” society where everyday working-class citizens, to paraphrase Klaus Schwab from the World Economic Forum, will “own nothing, and be happy about it.” All of this while living under the watchful eyes of the state in what is now the most heavily surveilled nation on Earth.

• London alone is drowning in surveillance—boasting between 627,700 and 942,500 CCTV cameras. That’s roughly 399.27 cameras per square kilometer and 73 cameras per 1,000 people, making it the most surveilled city in the Western world.

London has fallen into the grip of rampant crime, increasingly overrun by legal and illegal immigrants, many of whom arrived seeking better lives but harbor deep disdain for the native British culture and its way of life.

Their goal seems clear: dismantle what remains of Christianity and Western values, leaving London a hollowed-out husk, barely recognizable as the once-great city it was. Let’s not forget: London is now a city where data obtained by the BBC shows that a rape is reported every single hour, with over 8,800 cases recorded in 2023 alone by the Metropolitan Police. That’s an average of 24 reported rapes every single day.

Charities have described these statistics as “horrifying,” acknowledging that the real numbers are likely even higher, while the number of charges has more than doubled since last year. And if that isn’t enough, the new Labour government, in its short time in power, has already allowed 10,000 illegal immigrants to cross the English Channel in just three months.

• Following the Southport riots on July 31st, the UK government seized the opportunity to crack down even harder, further encroaching on the rights of its citizens. They’ve rolled out their shiny new weapon—the Online Safety Act—which they’re now wielding to silence and imprison anyone who dares to share a dissenting opinion on social media.

• This is only the beginning of a broader, more sinister censorship agenda that is creeping through the UK, and make no mistake, it’s already spreading to the US and the EU. Don’t believe me? Just ask Mark Zuckerberg.

Western civilization teeters on the brink of a new Dark Age — any government that locks up its own citizens for expressing "wrong" opinions can no longer claim to stand for freedom or human rights.

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Tensions are Rising in the East, with Escalations on a Knife’s Edge

Last week, Israel carried out a highly calculated and unconventional strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, utilizing a combination of pager and walkie-talkie devices to detonate explosives.

This attack claimed the lives of 32 individuals, including two children, and left thousands more injured. This was no ordinary assault — it showcased a level of precision and tactical innovation that left many observers surprised by Israel's operational sophistication.

Following this, Israel launched a targeted strike in southern Beirut, eliminating Hezbollah’s operations commander Ibrahim Aqil along with other senior figures from one of the group’s elite units. These actions have heightened fears among U.S. officials, who are increasingly concerned that the situation could spiral into full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah.

These concerns reached new heights on Saturday, when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that Hezbollah was preparing for an imminent retaliation, in response to the string of Israeli strikes in Lebanon this week.

• The tension in the region is palpable, and several key takeaways are emerging from these events. First, Israel's military capabilities are proving to be far more advanced than many had anticipated. Second, neither Hezbollah nor Hamas are showing any interest in pursuing peace talks. If anything, the conflict seems to be escalating.

• This raises the critical question: What happens if Israel finds itself drawn into an all-out war? Would Iran, Hezbollah’s primary backer, become directly involved? And if that happens, would the U.S. be pulled into the conflict? These unanswered questions are casting a long shadow over global financial markets and have significant implications for fiscal policies around the world.

• While the situation intensifies, one group is seeing massive profits — weapons manufacturers. Since July 22nd, shares of Lockheed Martin ($LMT) have surged by 20%, Northrop Grumman ($NOC) by 18%, and Leidos ($LDOS) is up an astounding 45% year-to-date. As tensions rise, so do their profits.

The chaos in the region is only escalating, and as we delve deeper into this issue later in today’s email, we’ll explore where this conflict may be heading and what the broader consequences could be. This one is worth sticking around for.

Will The US Election be Stolen from Us? Black Swan Event Pending…

This is an apolitical observation I am about to state. Two assassination attempts later, Trump is still standing. Meanwhile, Zuckerberg has openly admitted that tech giants have been censoring us and lying to the public for years. Let’s not forget the mass lockdowns and vaccine mandates — hailed as necessary by the establishment — that have left millions of Americans dealing with lifelong health issues. These weren’t just overreactions, they were deliberate lies that have caused lasting damage to public health.

And now, election interference is already underway, as states refuse to remove ineligible voters from the rolls. Take Arizona, for example, where the state’s Supreme Court has just approved 100,000 individuals to vote in the upcoming election despite their failure to meet the proof-of-citizenship requirement. All while the left-wing media continues to pump out its propaganda, misleading the American public into believing that there isn’t a full-blown crisis at the border.

The writing is on the wall, and it’s never been clearer. Across the U.S. and the West, our so-called leaders are escalating foreign wars, allowing unchecked crime and illegal immigration to tear down our societies, and using censorship to silence any dissent or critical thinking. We no longer have a government that works for the people; what we have now is a regime—one whose primary objective is holding on to power at any cost, enriching themselves in the process.

After the events of Biden’s failed bid for the Democrat nomination, and Kamala Harris’ nomination which coincided with a notable lack of competition from anyone within the Democratic party, it’s become very clear that no matter who’s in charge of the party on any given day, they’re nothing but a puppet.

Look no further than the Democratic party for proof. After Biden’s disastrous attempt at securing the Democratic nomination and the subsequent rise of Kamala Harris, who faced little to no real competition within the party, it’s become painfully clear that whoever occupies the figurehead role is merely a puppet.

• Kamala Harris, for instance, has become notorious for her incoherent ramblings, which recently went viral following her embarrassing interview with Oprah Winfrey.

• Without a teleprompter or pre-screened questions, her performance was nothing short of a disaster, exposing her glaring incompetence for all to see.

And what about Joe Biden? He’s just as much of a joke. Last week, he held a full Cabinet meeting only to immediately hand it over to his wife, Jill Biden, who took the reins and sat at the head of the table, addressing officials and politicians alike. Since when did the American people elect Jill Biden to lead the country? 

Why aren’t Americans outraged by the fact that the media blatantly lied to us about Joe Biden’s fitness to serve as President? At this point, we have to ask: Do we even have a president anymore? It’s more evident than ever that the Democratic party is pulling the strings — whoever "they" might be.

As we inch closer to the U.S. election, expect significant distractions and market volatility as investors try to price in the potential outcomes.

Now, let’s dive into how U.S. elections have historically impacted financial markets and explore the effects that Trump and Harris’s policies might have if they end up in the Oval Office.

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